I called this late last year and I’ll reaffirm my position again – the days of our beloved national technology darling, RIM are probably coming to an end. This week RIM gave warning of weaker than expected earning for Q2 (WSJ), which was no surprise given the poor out-of-the-gate performance of their new PlayBook product. But it is also much more than that.
RIM’s cascade into irrelevance started long before the Playbook as it failed to recognize the evolution of social communication and how quickly it was spreading…because it’s social communication. People are moving from communications tools to communications ecosystems while RIM insists on continuing to be a “product” company.
Facebook is no longer a website, it’s a communication ecosystem, so is Apple, as is Google and possibly in the distance Microsoft. Although people interface with these emerging ecosystems through “products” the products themselves are of little use without the ecosystem that now powers them. Facebook would be no use without my friends network, my iPhone would be just another phone without the App store and my Google TV would be just more IPTV without the growing app developer network.
Can RIM’s momentum sustain it? Not likely? Last week Nokia laid off more than 4000 staff as a final blow to the Symbian Phone operating system, which at one point was the most distributed piece of software on Earth. Symbian feel off of it’s cliff in less than 2 years because it did one thing, make phone calls, leaving what’s left of Nokia, a one time innovation flagship, to become Microsofts new mobile services sweat shop.
RIM’s footprint in the corporate domain may sustain it for a while, but more and more organizations are switching to a BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) policy. As businesses realize one of the best ways to maximize employee’s time is to extend more than just email to their mobile devices, the RIM devices’ lack of flexibility and usability make it less than interesting to the IT leaders that were once their strongest champions
Like many of it’s predecessors, I don’t expect RIM to drift into oblivion, but much like Nokia, Palm and a number of lesser known giants of the second golden age of Telcom, I expect in less than 2 years that RIM will be stripped of it’s patents, talent and juiciest technologies and shelved as a novelty, brand maybe to be revived as a nostalgia device 20 years from now like a Commodore 64.
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